Don't Fall into the Vicious Cycle

This is a real story that I heard from my colleague. They were implementing a project and was told to be on standby ie stay back for a while to monitor the job to ensure that the new changes are implemented correctly and to react fast for any abnormalities. However, my colleague said that 2 of them replied that they cannot stay and left office on time.

I tried to imagine what was going on inside their mind. Well, it could be that they really have some urgent family matters to settle and couldn't stay. Its also possible that they feel that their work effort is unappreciated and there's no point to really work hard to proof it to their boss or themselves. Whatever project they do is of no use, they feel that they are blacklisted. Well, if that's the case, then its a very dangerous thought. I would call it the vicious cycle, you will never get out of this black hole if you harbor such thoughts.

For example, if this year you didn't get a good grade and if you keep thinking that there's no point in studying harder because you cannot absorb anymore and your IQ is this much. You hit your maximum capacity. You are just psychologically limiting yourself. You are setting a ceiling, a mental disability for yourself. You will not get far if you have these limiting thoughts.

Let say you are on a weight loss program, you try to cut down on your carbo intake and exercise regularly. After a while, you didn't see any results, you slowly resign yourself to the fate that you are just a genetically inherited chubby boy/girl and its in your DNA that you are heavy and that nothing you do can help you reduce weight. Its like you are giving it up easily.

Or if you have a credit card debt and you can only repay a small amount each month. If you think that it doesn't matter and doesn't make any difference. Then you are doing a disservice to yourself. Well, it does make a difference. That little money you put in to repay your debt is going to help reduce your principle amount and one day you will clear your debt.

Same for your financial independence journey, when you just started working, you have little savings and those hard earned monies you frugally saved is just too little and it doesn't seem to generate any sizable dividends from your capital investment. You feel like you are taking ages to reach your destiny and there's not a shadow in sight.

Sure, many times while trying to reach your goal, the long journey will make you feel fruitless and you feel like you are wasting your time. We are only human and sometimes we will have such negative thoughts hovering in our mind. Well, Rome was not built in one day. So we all got to keep on trying.

Give yourself a chance. Don't give up on yourself.

Mar 2016 Portfolio

Mar is a good month with most of my stocks recovering from the low.

This month is the first time I didnt add any new stocks into my portfolio mainly because of the strong runup and I want to take a breather and reload my warchest abit hehe. We should be expecting the market to calm down abit after the mini rally.

STI vs my portfolio

My portfolio is still hovering in the negative region :( but good news is that I beat STI at least a consolation prize :)

Period	STI	My Portfolio (Realised)	Verdict
Jan 2016	-20.78%	-15.15%	I win
Feb 2016	-18.98%	-12.11%	I win
Mar 2016	-13%	-8.28%	I win

Total 22 stocks in portfolio



Dividend
This month I received dividends from Lippo Mall Tr, Asian Pay TV Tr



Checkout my Dividend history

Dividend Stock Tracker
I keep track of good SGX dividend stocks such as 10 years consistent SGX dividend stocks, REITs, Business Trusts, etc with real time information update. Checkout the link below:
Checkout my Dividend Tracker

Breakeven: Short CADJPY

On 29/02/16 morning, I took a short trade on CADJPY after seeing a potential pin bar developing. I got in a good entry, at the lowest point of the pin bar. But if I see the chart now, I wouldnt want to short it. I would want to buy it. When I preparing to write this post. I started drawing the trend line and see that it has reversed its trend. In the daily chart overall its a down trend but the trend line shows that it has broken out of its trend line and has become a uptrend. Lucky this time it break even :) because I got a good entry and sitting on +100 pips before it suddenly reversed and breakeven :(

Next time I better draw my trend line before acting!

Trading Plan:
1. Trade with the trend
2. Trade when there is a price action reversal with the trend continuation
3. Place SL on previous high/low candle or 150 pips max (Limit my loss)
4. No TP. Let market decide when to exit (Let my profit run)

Successful: Short EURJPY

On Tue 08/03/16 morning, I took a short trade on EURJPY after the confirmation of the 3 pin bar. It was a good trade but I think my entry can be improved. Waiting for the formation of the 3 pin bar was good but it took away most of my profit. I feel it wasnt a good entry as I missed out most of the move. The trade even went against me for a while before becoming profitable. I feel that this trade can develop better but I wasnt so comfortable about my entry so just took a small profit.

Then I read somewhere is that we can put our order at the high/low of the pin bar (centre candle) so that we can get a better entry. Less stressful and more profitable. Let's see how.

Trading Plan:
1. Trade with the trend
2. Trade when there is a price action reversal with the trend continuation
3. Place SL on previous high/low candle or 150 pips max (Limit my loss)
4. No TP. Let market decide when to exit (Let my profit run)

Failed: Long USDZAR, Long USDPLN

On Monday 29/02/16 morning, I took 3 trades and all failed. The first one was stop out very fast within a day and I shared it here. On the weekly chart it was obviously a weekly bullish reversal but something happened to USD, some news or what which I didnt know caused the 2 pairs i long to reverse back down again. As mentioned in my failed long EURZAR trade, I placed my stop loss quite big as I dont want to get stop out unnecessary and doesnt think it will get hit as the weekly TF should have a more reliable price action.

These 3 trades really caused me to lose back all my profits earned from the previous trades and shaken my confidence. (-580 pips) and (-130 pips i manual cut loss early) :( . Consolation is that lucky i cut loss early. if i didnt cut loss, the 3 trades went against me even more and will lose even more!

i am going to risk 100 pips for each trade from now on!

Trading Plan:
1. Trade with the trend
2. Trade when there is a price action reversal with the trend continuation
3. Place SL on previous high/low candle or 100 pips max (Limit my loss)
4. No TP. Let market decide when to exit (Let my profit run)

Failed: Long EURZAR

On Monday 29/02/16 morning, whats look like a bullish reversal on EURZAR turns out to be a big bear coming too fast and furious. It came down so fast and hit my stop loss within 1 day. Everything is ok for this pair, its on a up trend and got a bullish reversal but it could be at the end stage of its up trend as there's a lower high. This could be the thing why this trade didnt work out.

I spaced out my stop loss widely as I dont want to get stop out unnecessary but its a double edge sword. If it hits, the loss is huge. My biggest loss so far and I am licking my wounds -S$484.12 *ouch!*

Trading Plan:
1. Trade with the trend
2. Trade when there is a price action reversal with the trend continuation
3. Place SL on previous high/low candle (Limit my loss)
4. No TP. Let market decide when to exit (Let my profit run)

Sideline: Short EURZAR

On Monday 22/02/16 morning, I saw that there's a bearish reversal on EURZAR. There's also a nice mini Head and shoulder chart pattern formation which looks like a good shorting opportunity. The only thing that kept me away from trading this is that it is a counter trend trade ie it is against the trend. I wanted to monitor this forex and see how it develop. Yes, it went down for 1 day and looks promising. However, on the second day, there's a bullish reversal which cause it to move up. So it doesnt pay to trade against the trend as you are exposed to higher risk and smaller reward.

Well, I am glad I didnt trade this and give it a miss.

Trading Plan:
1. Trade with the trend
2. Trade when there is a price action reversal with the trend continuation
3. Place SL on previous high/low candle (Limit my loss)
4. No TP. Let market decide when to exit (Let my profit run)