Friday, July 24, 2015

Auntie Uncle Stock Indicator (Proven Accurate!)

I was sweeping through China Market ETF and China Bank stock to see if there's any high dividend blue chips to buy. Then I remember there was a Weibo article in May 2015 reporting that many cash rich 'Dama' or Chinese aunties who are noob about stocks are opening accounts to buy shares in the stock market to earn big bucks and be instant rich.

See what happens after the strong China stock market rally in May 2015?

This indicator is quite accurate, I seen it before. If local newspaper reported huge number of auntie and uncle buying stocks with cash or retirement fund. BEWARE! Stock market is going to crash!

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Plan for Failure Or Success?

During my working life, I have reported to a few bosses. Some were 'monster' boss or tekan kings or queens. They wack you upside down and inside out and make you lose all your cocky confidence.

If you come out of their torture chamber smiling and surviving, congratulations you made it through the '36 luo han chamber'. This is a very famous movie when I was a little boy. In Shaolin temple, if a monk or disciple wants to 'graduate' and leave the temple, they have to prove themselves that their kungfu are ready for the tough outside world. They have to fight their way through the 36 chambers and must be able to pass all of them before you can go and see the outside world.

Same for the monster boss, they will throw you the toughest project they can find or volunteer you to other siong team or project and see if you can swim out alive and handle the project well. Its either make it or break it. If you give up and throw the white towel, then too bad, you failed the test and you are not cut out to be the elite core management team. This is to me, means 'Plan for Failure'. The monster boss want to make you fail, screwup the project or make you quit or resign. If you survive the whole ordeal, congrats, you passed the test.

If you are very lucky to have those nice bosses who 'Plan for Success', congrats. If you are already earmarked to be the elite force, the nice boss will protect you, shield you and praise you infront of others to make you successful or make it a success. Its a much easier process then the 'Plan for failure'. You do not have to put a lot of efforts and things are pretty planned out for you. You just need to go through it and it will be a breeze.

So if you are the candidate, which one do you want? Do you want to take the easy way out of 'Plan for success'? I think majority wants the easiest way out or shortcut. But the truth is that you will not be as tough as the guy as the one who went through '36 luo han chamber'. But who cares right? its easier to be the guy who got the 'Plan for Success'. I also want haha

Ok, let us change the context. So what about your portfolio? Do you want to 'Plan for failure' or 'Plan for success'?

We definitely want our portfolio to withstand the volatility, economic cycles and weathered the ever changing business world. In our portfolio we 'Plan for failure' by asking ourselves questions like :
1. are we overexposed in a particular company which give us too much risk?
2. are we overexposed in a particular sector eg oil and gas sector is quite beaten down. do we keep loading up those energy stocks?
3. are we having too many small caps ?
4. are we having too many REITs, medium caps and blue chips?
5. are we overexposed in stocks?
6. What happen if there's a global economic crisis? am I ready to take advantage of it?
7. Stick to your plan! Make sure you buy those beaten down blue chips at dirt cheap prices and not watch it go up again with your balls shrink

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

A Road Accident

Last Friday was supposed to meetup a colleague for a farewell lunch of another who is leaving Singapore.

Then on that day morning, I noticed the colleague's close friend was crying so went up and asked for the reason. Then was shocked and sadden by the news that my colleague met a road incident involving a taxi and she was the victim as a pedestrian. Then we slowly got news that her skull was fractured and in ICU ward. Kinda serious.

That Friday night, me along with some others went to the hospital to visit her. The sight was bad, lots of supporting devices and air tubes connecting to her nose and mouth. Some said she was tied down to the bed to prevent her from any violent movement or probably to calm her down. It was sad to see something like that. She had to be sedated for 2 days so that her brain's activity would be lower, stabilized and to ease the pressure from her head. That's what I heard.

No one knows how she end up like that except that it was a road accident involving with a taxi. It wasn't a hit and run case as the taxi driver had given his statement to the police. We just have to wait for our friend to wake up in order to hear her other side of the story.

Over the weekend, we worried over her condition and her close friend constantly update us about the progress of her condition. Colleagues told terrible stories that some poor people will lose memories or be a vegetable. Just hope that everything will turn out well.

Finally on Mon, good news! She started responding when people talk to her but she still cant talk. Then on Tues, finally we received news that all was well so she is off the life supporting devices and can be moved to normal ward. What a relief!

Heard that she was crossing the road of a 2 way traffic and was standing at the road divider. Apparently, the taxi had an accident with another car and was trying to avoid hitting the car and turn the wheel towards the road divider and our friend was unlucky to be standing right there.

This incident come as a grim reminder of how fragile our life is and it can happen to anyone. Always spend time with your family and loved ones. And I know that we all save a little bit harder all to have more investment fund to build up our retirement nest. But don't forget what life is all about and set your priority right. We invest to live not live to invest :)

Next time your loved ones asked for something which is not too much or too difficult, just give in and give it to him/her. The smile on their face will be priceless :)

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Half Yearly 2015 Portfolio Review

Its the mid of 2015, let's just do a little checkpoint to see how much am I closer to my target :) I started building my portfolio in Oct 2014. So close to 1 year of results.

STI vs my portfolio:

My portfolio started to beat STI recently with the cumulative amount of dividends collected, it should be a matter of months. But I noticed that STI rebound faster than my portfolio probably because blue chips are more popular when there's a dip or in an oversold situation, it can recover quickly.

Portfolio by stocks:

I am currently still in the process of diversifying my portfolio such that they should not exceed more than 5% of my total portfolio. I am still looking out for more high dividend stocks to buy so that I will be more diversified. I have 16 stocks with me now and will be targeting to reach more than 30 of them.

Portfolio by sector:

In the sector diversification, I am quite max up with the Capital Markets sector. I also bought in quite a number of shares in the Industrial conglomerates which consists of Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Ind, it is now about 16%. Still got room to load up a bit more :) Probably not more than 20% for each sector of the other stocks.

Checkout my portfolio → portfolio

TargetTargetted Portfolio sizeTargetted Monthly dividendsPeriodYearly CONDividends Reinvested
1st target$85,000$495 2015$30,000$5,900
My 1st target is to invest up to $85,000 and receive monthly dividend up to $495 per month. I think I already met my 1st target!
I have invested $96k and expected to receive monthly dividend of about $500 :)

Checkout my target → target


Total dividend is $3k+
Dividend per month is $260

Checkout my dividend → Dividends

Portfolio Analysis:
My worst performer is Second Change (-26%) Grrr. Not sure if I am unlucky or what. Bought it and suddenly announced that it cannot proceed with the REITs plan and from a good news suddenly become a bad one :(

My best performer so far is CDW (16%). This one I was monitoring and one day suddenly saw a surge in volume and price so just jump in the bandwagon. Still holding for long term.

Overall, my portfolio still ends positive in mid 2015. Some credits for the diversification of stocks. My risks are spread out throughout my list of stocks. Cant imagine if I have a big share in Second Chance then my portfolio will look really bad.

At end of mid 2015, I already invested close to $96,000 and receive monthly dividend of $260. Based on the projection of my expected annual dividend of this current portfolio, I should be getting around $7000 which is about $580 per month. So I should have met my 1st year target. We will confirm this when we do a full review of 2015 at year end. I will continue to follow my strategy of allocating $5000 each month to buy high dividend stocks and march towards my 2nd target which is ...

TargetTargetted Portfolio sizeTargetted Monthly dividendsPeriodYearly CONDividends Reinvested
1st target$85,000$495 2015$30,000$5,900
2nd target$120,000$700 2016$30,000$8,400
3rd target$161,000$920 2017$30,000$11,000
4th target$213,000$1200 2018$30,000$14,900
5th target$257,000$1500 2019$30,000$18,000
6th target$320,000$1800 2020$30,000$22,400
7th target$372,000$2100 2021$30,000$26,000
8th target$428,000$2490 2022$30,000$29,900
9th target$487,000$2800 2023$30,000$34,100
Final target$551,000$3200 2024$30,000$38,500

Checkout my strategy → Strategy

Dividend Stock Tracker
I keep track of good SGX dividend stocks such as 10 years consistent SGX dividend stocks, REITs, Business Trusts, etc with real time information update. Checkout the link below:
Checkout my Dividend Tracker

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Jun 2015 Portfolio

There's some volatility this month mainly due to Greek default scare, China stock market sell off and Fed decision to raise interest rate. Actually these are not something new and the news of that coming back to haunt the investors had caused the market to sell down bit. We also see a 179 years old gunmaker colt-defense filing for bankruptcy. Very sad to see such old company going off :(

This month I added M1 into my portfolio.
My first telecom stock and the smallest among the 3 of them ie SingTel, StarHub and M1. PE and PB wasn't fantastic as expected because telco stocks don't usually have that because of the cost of their infrastructure, networks, etc. Actually there's quite alot in my buying list but decided to add this because it has dropped quite a lot from its peak and look quite stablised at this moment. It is a stable telco stock which is consistently paying out dividend. Just glad to add this orange into my portfolio :)

STI vs my portfolio

My portfolio managed to stay afloat and beat STI this month :) Thanks to the dividends received. Let's hope it will stay like this for subsequent months.

PeriodSTIMy Portfolio (Realised)Verdict
Jan 20152.71%3.21% I win
Feb 20152.41%2.16% I lose
Mar 20153.31%0.62% I lose
Apr 20156.02%4.18% I lose
May 20153.31%3.84% I win
Jun 20150.90%1.14% I win
Total 16 stocks in portfolio

This month dividends start to dwindle abit after the bountiful harvest last month.
Checkout my Dividend history

Dividend Stock Tracker
I keep track of good SGX dividend stocks such as 10 years consistent SGX dividend stocks, REITs, Business Trusts, etc with real time information update. Checkout the link below:
Checkout my Dividend Tracker